July 5, 2026: In the fifth year of war in Ukraine, Russia is running out of soldiers and 50,000 of those that remain have left. The number of deserters is increasing, which threatens Russia’s ability to man the thousand kilometer front line. So far this year, Russia has lost over 600,000 troops dead, wounded, missing, and deserters.

There are also defectors comprised of Russian soldiers who flee to a country bordering Russia and ask for asylum as refugees from the unpopular war in Ukraine. Many Ukrainian soldiers are also deserting and simply migrating to NATO countries and, if necessary, asking for asylum. Many of these defectors have served in the Ukrainian military for years and have documents and photos to prove it. Ukraine is aware of these defectors and doesn’t go after like the Russians do with their defectors.

The Ukrainian response to defectors is to upgrade the conditions of service for their soldiers. Now soldiers are in the military for a fixed period and have the option to remain in the army if they want to. Ukraine is implementing this fixed term of service for existing soldiers, hoping that enough of them remain to finish off Russian forces in Crimea and the few other areas in Ukraine where they remain. Most current Ukrainian soldiers are willing to consider extending their service as long as they have the option to leave soon.

The Ukrainian military is also attracting more women, who usually serve in support jobs or as drone operators and, in a few cases, as snipers. Ukrainian female snipers were common during World War II and after the war as Ukraine once more fought for its freedom from Russia. This rebellion was over by the mid-1950s and the descendants of these rebels sometimes remarked that hunting and killing Russian soldiers was an ancient family tradition.

The 1.4 million casualties in Ukraine have caused Russian recruiters to be more creative, and deceptive to obtain new soldiers. The recruiters usually dress in civilian clothes and travel in pairs. Large groups of recruiters if the recruiting is going to be done at a large public event attended by lots of young men. Recruiters approach the men, show their ID and ask if the man would like to make some good money serving in the army. The war is still consuming half the government budget and the economy is struggling. Jobs are hard to find, and unemployed men can often be persuaded to sign a lucrative contract to serve in the army for a number of years. If men refuse, the recruiters can put them under a form of arrest and take them to an army mobilization center to begin their training. Men kidnapped like this often go along with it because it is a job and service in Ukraine is not a certainty.

Several million Russians have been recruited for the Ukraine War since February 2022. More than a million additional men fled Russia to avoid mobilization. Ukraine has mobilized half that number but trains its soldiers thoroughly before sending them off to war. Ukraine also provides far better medical care for its wounded and suffers less than half as many casualties as the Russians.

Russian deserters are subject to as many as 15 years in prison, but that sentence is rarely imposed. If the deserter agrees to resume his military service, he will not be bothered anymore, although the government will retain a record of the desertion. Russian leaders are currently figuring out how to explain their defeat in Ukraine while also planning future military adventures. Russia expects to have its new army formed and ready to go by the end of the decade. Next to Ukraine, Russia is the only other country with experience using drones. Ukraine, which invented drone warfare, has turned this knowledge into a profitable export item. Ukrainian drone manufacturers are establishing relationships with similar firms in other countries and showing these foreigners how to build, package and sell military drones. Ukraine also provides assistance in training foreign troops to teach drone operation and tactics.

Drones have become a big business for Ukraine, as well as arms manufacturing in general. By the end of 2026 Ukraine was manufacturing most of the weapons, munitions and military equipment it needed. Ukrainians are the current experts in conducting modern warfare. While Russia shares its expertise with North Korea, Iran, Cuba and a few other nations, Ukraine has the rest of the world, especially the NATO nations.